Reflection of the small direction of Bitcoin etfs

yesterday , Etf su bitcoin spot The total external flows recorded about $ 85 million.

This is a small reflection of the direction, given that the previous three sessions recorded daily flows of several hundreds of million dollars.

Something like this, however, it has already happened on April 30, so it is not considered a disturbing sign. However, since Powell will speak today, there is little fear.

Bitcoin boxes

Starting in mid -April, a long series of stock market sessions has been recorded with total net flows BTC ETFS spot in the United States of America.

The daily peak for this period was reached on April 22, above 900 million, when Bitcoin price She separated from $ 85,000 and started to go About $ 90,000.

Note that since then it has not decreased to less than $ 90,000 again.

In the last twenty days, there were only two negative sessions with net external flows in general, however, both, less than 100 million dollars per day, while all other sessions are closed. Net daily flows exceeds 100 million.

In fact, with the exception of 173 million on April 29, all other sessions were closed by more than $ 300 million of daily flows, with the exception of April 21, all of which exceeded $ 400 million.

So it was a kind of victorious ride, too, and above all because of the fact that the idea has spread that the relative lower part of this period has been overlooked now.

Yesterday’s concerns lead to external flows of investment funds circulating in Bitcoin

Although one Data yesterday Not enough to mention that new The direction of the bear It has begun, however, it is a clear sign of some fear.

This fear was also reflected on price BitcoinAnd that decreased in the last days from 98,000 dollars to less than 94,000 dollars, but last night it has already returned to above 96,000 dollars.

Such concerns are linked to What the Federal Reserve may say todayAlthough the bounce last night was likely to raise rumors that political talks could soon begin between the American government and the Chinese government regarding potential commercial agreements to overcome the current stalemate caused by definitions.

This does not change the fact that the Federal Reserve can move the markets today.

Federal reserve problem

Today, certainly, feeding It will announce that it has not lower interest rates.

This hypothesis has already been widely priced by the markets, which, however, is still very uncertain, especially about future development.

The main point is always the monetary policy of the central bank, especially the possible future pathway for price discounts.

At this moment, the market pricing on it even in June, the Federal Reserve will not reduce prices, and that is. By the end of the year, there will be only three discounts of 25 basis points.

However, if it was among the words of Powell, and from the so -called Fed Dot plot, it was a different strategy that appears, the markets can interact immediately with a wide and fast situation.

The problem is that inflation in the United States of America for several months now has not decreased significantly, and this is added to the fact that The definitions made by Trump The price will end up.

In such an uncertain framework, the Federal Reserve may not have enough information to plan for more price cuts, and thus specify, for example, to stop the route of discounts so that it has clear positive information on this topic.

One of the worst scenarios that are possible is to increase inflation in the coming months, which can force the Federal Reserve to raise prices again. However, the markets seem more inclined to believe that the best scenario is in a better condition, that is, Trump will eventually remove the tariffs within two months.

Bitcoin power

In such a context, the victorious passengers of the Bitcoin qualifiers stand out.

Through this phenomenon, the markets certainly seem to want to bet on Trump’s reflection on the definitions in the coming months, and thus to resume the course of interest rate discounts by the Federal Reserve.

But it can also bet on another factor: weakening the additional dollar.

We should not forget that in the medium/long term in the long run, the direction of the bitcoin price is Reverse is linked to the DXY index.

The fact is that the trade balance of the United States of America with foreign countries is in The lowest historical levels in all times. Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit significantly, and this can be done either by reducing imports or increasing exports.

With a strong dollar, it is imperative that imports grow, exports will decrease, and the dollar has been strengthening for more than 15 years so far.

To reduce imports, Trump provided definitions, but this solution not only produces strong negative consequences, but in reality, at the present time, it does not even work. However, it was the only way to intervene immediately on the problem.

Instead, it will be better to prefer exports, so it is necessary to have a weaker dollar than it is now.

If Trump is able to weaken the dollar significantly, this problem will be solved, and at the same time, the Bitcoin trend can benefit greatly from it.

It must be remembered that since he took office in January, Trump has already caused a decrease in the dollar index from about 110 points to less than 100, and it may be in mind that he attends not only to the lowest level in recent years (95 points) but perhaps much less than this last threshold.