Queen Thompson says the Bitcoin price (BTC)

Bitcoin’s correction may start. In fact, the encryption sector as a whole can face a severe declining trend that reminds us in 2022.

“We can see that we are returning to the five handle by the end of the year,” said Queen Timeson, founder of the Crypto Lekker Capital. “Five Hand”, that is, a price ranging between $ 50,000 and $ 59,999, will be a significant decrease from the level of $ 83,000 already fragile and almost 50 % decreased from Bitcoin peak that exceeds $ 109,000 for more than two months.

Tomson added: “I do not think this happens quickly, and that is why it will be very painful and shocking to people because there is nothing about the current market conditions very volatile, with great rank and accidents.” “This type of different market environment, and it is a slow, unbearable grinder for people because they are like, is it ended? Is it the bottom?”

Thompson, from Be From much higher levels, repeatedly described the White House encryption ads-whether the sovereign wealth box or strategic Bitcoin reserves, or anything between “Nothingburgers” and “Selling News”. He also has Argue The constant bitcoin purchases (MSTR) of this strategy are not necessarily ups in the encrypted currency, as it appears to be the only important offer.

The four opposite winds of the economy

Thompson’s thesis is the idea that the various Trump administration policies will harm the economy over the six to nine months.

First, in its efforts to reduce deficit in the United States, the Ministry of Governmental efficiency (DOGE) suffer from deficit in the United States – from cutting government spending – which was one of the largest job growth engines in recent years. Tomson said the labor market was already fluctuating when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, and the financial arm of the new government is no longer interested in supporting things anymore.

Tomson said: “People are busy with the policy of that.” “We can disagree about whether or not we needed the Ministry of Education. But those dollars were printed and went to the pockets of people, and these people have spent them, and they went on vacation and to the grocery store. So the growth was positive.”

Elon Musk, the main power behind Dog, He said Last week, it was aimed at reducing $ 1 trillion of government spending by the end of May; He also said he wanted to reduce 15 % of the government’s annual spending, which means approximately $ 7 trillion.

Even if Dog fails in his declared goal and can only reduce, for example, a hundred billion over a period of four years, the biggest cuts will occur at the beginning of the Trump period, not the end. This means that the effect of Dog on the economy and the feeling of consumer is likely to be perceived in the coming months, regardless of whether the agency is already succeeded or not.

Second, the illegal immigration campaign on the southern border – in addition to the renewed emphasis on deportation – must affect the labor market. Immigration is positive growth because it puts pressure on wages; If this working group dries up, workers will request higher salaries, which some companies will not tolerate.

The third issue of Thompson is the customs tariff. Trump administration Continuing change The threats of customs tariffs on a daily basis, sometimes promised new, and sometimes get rid of it, which creates a doubt whether the majority of the proposed definitions will actually enter into force. But the important thing in the definitions is that it creates the uncertainty for companies, which may choose to delay investment or employ decisions until the state of customs tariffs is resolved.

Finally, Federal Reserve It does not seem to be in a hurry to mitigate Financial conditions because inflation data was not great. The US Central Bank reduced the interest point at a full percentage point at the end of 2024, to 4.25 % -4.5 %, and even this was not enough to pay Bitcoin above $ 110,000. Thompson says that the Federal Reserve will reduce between 25 and 75 basis points in 2025, but these cuts will spread in the second half of the year.

Tomson said: “I think there is a lot of coordination between the treasury and federal papers more than people who want to believe,” Tomson said. “People think Trump and [Fed chair] Powell will be quarrels, but they are actually a kind of team itself now. [Secretary of Treasury] Pesin and Trump reduces growth, and this helps Powell to achieve low inflation. “

When will the bottom be?

Tomson said that with these opposite winds that work against assets, such as arrows and bitcoin, the encryption sector is unlikely to have a good year. He said the fact that the White House does not seem very concerned about the potential stagnation is also a strong signal.

“Bessent comes in a saying,” We need to correct the ship. “The company of the ship means cutting the juice that was working to operate these crazy assets.

But what time is Trump to maintain the path? Until it becomes very painful, even Trump’s political base tells him to cut it, or until the beginning of 2026 – you cannot push a country to stagnate with the upcoming term renewal elections.

“I am equal to this burns. They are trying to remove the brush on the intention that it does not become more problem. But sometimes the burns controlled by forest fires become,” said Thompson. “I think it will be a long kind of twilight throughout the year as they try to enact these policies.”