Quantum computing is coming to BTC

In recent days, there has been a bit of a media firestorm surrounding Google’s announcement about Willow, its new quantum computer, and the perceived threat to Bitcoin. Most analyzes reveal a remarkably superficial understanding of how quantum computing will change cryptography, as well as how Bitcoin remains resilient in the face of these types of technological advances. We’ll take a deeper look at quantum computing and the threat it poses to Bitcoin. It will get technical at certain points, but this is necessary to scratch the surface and really understand the state of play.

In short, quantum computing will almost certainly require a change in Bitcoin’s protocol within the next few years, similar to the computer upgrades it launched in 2000. That would be an expensive and time-consuming exercise, but it does not pose an existential threat to Bitcoin itself. And it’s not just Bitcoin that will be affected, because what we’re really talking about is the ability of quantum computers to hack it all A type of encryption that we use today in finance, commerce, banking, and more.

It’s hard not to wonder if some of this unease about the end of Bitcoin stems from a kind of “sour grapes” dynamic. Detractors who have long avoided Bitcoin — whether because they don’t believe it could ever succeed, resent its challenge to government control, or simply regret not investing when it was cheaper — are seizing on Google’s quantum computing news to predict Bitcoin’s downfall. These reactions often speak more to the biases of skeptics than to the weaknesses of Bitcoin itself.

It’s not just a Bitcoin problem

Google’s Willow quantum computer can perform calculations using 105 qubits, and its output is (so far) believed to be relatively accurate. Although 105 qubits is a big step forward in processing the power of previous quantum computers, cracking Bitcoin’s encryption would require 200 to 400 million qubits. To reach this capacity within 10 years, quantum computing would need to rise by more than 324% per year, far exceeding expectations.

However, quantum computing is a threat to Bitcoin and should be taken seriously. The Bitcoin protocol will need to be updated to be quantum-resistant, sooner rather than later. Conversations have already begun in the Bitcoin developer community about when and how to do this. Once these ideas are solidified, a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, or BIP, will be published online for continued discussion and experimentation. If the community chooses any particular solution, it will take effect once it is adopted by the majority of Bitcoin nodes.

The changes coming to Bitcoin to address this challenge pale in comparison to what is required of millions of other secure computing protocols and networks. Efforts to upgrade the entire world’s encryption protocols will be orders of magnitude more complex than in preparation for the year 2000.

Focusing on how quantum computing will impact cryptocurrency misses the most important point: the end of crypto isn’t just a problem for Bitcoin, it’s a problem for everything. The transition to a post-quantum world will pose a fundamental challenge to the backbone of modern civilization.

Encryption is everywhere

Cryptography is the cornerstone of modern life, underpinning almost every aspect of technology-enabled society. Financial systems rely on RSA encryption to secure online banking transactions, ensuring that sensitive details such as credit card numbers and account credentials are safe from theft. Without cryptography, there is no banking system.

E-commerce platforms use the same principles to protect payment data as it travels between buyers and sellers. Without encryption there is no e-commerce.

Hospitals and medical providers rely on encryption to transfer electronic health records and process payments. Without encryption, there is no modern medical system.

Government agencies use encryption to secure confidential communications and protect national secrets from potential adversaries. Without encryption, there is no national security.

Encrypted commands secure Internet of Things (IoT) devices, from connected cars to smart home systems, preventing malicious actors from taking control of everyday technology. Without encryption there are no smart devices.

Harvest now, decrypt later

Although we are still years or even decades away from the end of traditional encryption methods, the preparation for quantum supremacy has already begun in light of the threat of “harvest now, decrypt later.”

One of the main advantages of encryption is that it allows you to transmit Secure messages over an insecure channel. For example, when you log into your bank account on your home computer, your password is encrypted before it is sent over the Internet to your bank. Along the way, it may pass through several servers, which can theoretically save and store it. However, since the password is encrypted, a series of incomprehensible information will be saved. If you’re a bad actor, you won’t be able to crack the password, so memorizing it will be pointless.

That is, unless you save them for years or decades, waiting for the day when you can decrypt the data using a quantum computer that has not yet been invented.

This may not make sense for a bank password. Like much other encrypted data, it will likely be irrelevant after a certain period of time, even if it is decrypted decades later. Passwords are changed, accounts are closed, people die, and companies cease to exist. However, in some areas, encrypted data may be useful for years or even decades after it is saved – data such as state secrets or master lists of passwords that are reused across platforms.

If quantum computing is expected to be able to break encryption within a few years or decades, attackers in sensitive domains such as defense and intelligence will (and certainly do) collect encrypted data now, even if it is currently indecipherable and useless. Therefore, the foundation for the transition to post-quantum cryptography is already beginning to be laid.

Post-quantum cryptography

While quantum computers will eventually succeed in breaking current encryption methods, they could also be used to develop more advanced encryption algorithms. In other words, quantum computing does not signal the end of cryptography itself, but rather a shift from current encryption algorithms to newer quantum-resistant algorithms.

This transformation is already underway. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is an active area of ​​research, producing promising developments aimed at securing systems against future quantum threats while preserving the fundamental principles of cryptographic security. Bitcoin and everything else will need to take advantage of developments in PQC to maintain its integrity.

The basis of PQC lies in mathematical problems that quantum computers are not suitable for solving. Unlike today’s cryptography, which relies on discrete logarithm problem and integer factorization – both of which can be handled efficiently by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer – PQC algorithms are built on different mathematical frameworks. These include lattice-based cryptography, multivariate polynomial equations, and hash-based signatures, all of which show great promise in resisting quantum attacks.

Post-quantum cryptography timeline

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is located at Introduction to this effortcoordinating a global initiative to standardize quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms. After years of careful evaluation, NIST announced a set of candidate algorithms for post-quantum cryptography standards in 2022, with a focus on practical implementation and broad application across industries.

Although the transition to PQC will be complex, it is already taking shape. National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM-10) set a target date of 2035 for migrating federal systems to quantum-resistant encryption methods. However, some systems that require long-term confidentiality, such as government communications or secure financial transactions, may require early adoption due to their high risk. NIST recommends prioritizing quantum-resistant key generation schemes in protocols such as TLS and IKE, which support secure communications on the Internet.

The future path for PQC includes not only updating coding standards, but also ensuring compatibility with existing systems. It is a daunting task, given the diversity of encryption applications across industries, but it is essential for maintaining trust in a connected digital world. As NIST continues to work with academia, industry, and governments, widespread adoption of PQC represents a vital step in future-proofing the Internet.

Civilizational advancement

Our digital lives will need to upgrade to become quantum resistant, one protocol at a time. There are a lot of protocols that rely on cryptography, and there are bound to be some bugs and hacks when they are upgraded to be quantum-resistant. With Bitcoin being one protocol that is extremely important to global finance, there is no doubt that it will be one of the first to be launched.

The transition to post-quantum cryptography may be difficult, but the fact that it is necessary is exhilarating — it indicates that we are entering the age of quantum computing. This transformative technology promises to create breakthroughs in fields ranging from medicine to advanced materials, opening up possibilities and innovations that we can barely imagine today.