Odds of Trump Approving Bitcoin Reserves Drop: Polymarket

Polymarket users predict that President-elect Donald Trump will not approve a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve during the first 100 days of his administration.

Poll with more $1.5 million In the money, those odds are just 27%, down from 60% after Trump was elected. This is a notable prediction given that Polymarket has been very accurate in the past, including its estimates on the recent presidential election.

Kalshi users disagree

Other prediction market participants expect Trump to eventually accept Bitcoin (Bitcoin) as a strategic reserve that includes crude oil and gold. Calci, for example, has Probabilities are laid out of Bitcoin’s reserve capacity will occur by January 2026 at 61%, the highest point since December 21.

Some countries with conservative tendencies, e.g Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania They also started working on their strategic Bitcoin reserves. A bill in Pennsylvania states that the government may invest at least 10% of the state’s general fund in Bitcoin to fight inflation.

However, Polymarket and Kalshi users expect that the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve invoice will take some time to be issued. A Polymarket survey He puts the odds of Texas passing the bill by March of next year at 10%, while… Kalshi has possibilities By 24%.

Proponents of the US embrace of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, incl Senator Cynthia Lummishe argues, makes financial sense because of the dynamics of demand and supply. Data shows that demand for Bitcoin is on the rise, with spot ETFs holding more than $128 billion in assets.

Supply is declining, with mining difficulty rising to a record high following the recent Bitcoin halving event in April this year. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have continued to decline this year.

Supporters also point to the success of MicroStrategy, which helped it become an $80 billion company by becoming the largest holder of bitcoin. As such, some analysts predict that the United States could eventually use its Bitcoin holdings to pay off some of its debt, which currently stands at more than $36 trillion.

Opponents argue that Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market size, regulatory restrictions, and its effects on sovereignty and trust make it an impractical solution to repay the U.S. national debt.

The Federal Reserve has already said so He is not allowed to hold BitcoinWhich means it would take an act of Congress to do so.

Trump supported Bitcoin and suggested that the government convert its Bitcoin holdings into strategic reserves. Data by BitcoinTreasuries It shows the government owns 198,000 coins worth $18 billion.