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Most encryption traders expect impatiently what is indicated in the world of encryption in the name of AltCoin or “Alt Season” season for a short period: that crazy period when Altcoins make incredible gains and goes equivalent. Many have repeatedly called for his arrival, just to prove again and again. Instead of the expected increase in Altcoins, Bitcoin continued to rise during the current market cycle.

In a recent video clip, an analyst on the well -known YouTube Benjamin Quinn The reason for the appearance of the ALT season is studying out of reach and displays the factors that are believed to have contributed to this direction and what can be expected to move forward.

Understand the alternative season

Before diving in the reason why the alternative season does not occur, it is important to determine what the alternative season really means. While some investors may feel that small gatherings in Altcoins are the Alt season, the real Alt season is characterized by a sharp decrease in bitcoin dominance along with major gains in Altcoin-To-Usd pairs.

Historical data shows that there are two clear seasons in previous market courses: one in 2017 and another in 2021. During these periods, bitcoin dominated, and Altcoins witnessed an explosive growth. However, outside these moments, Bitcoin was generally heading up or stable, which means that Altcoin’s gains were limited compared to Bitcoin’s performance.

However, the current market is not similar to the alternative seasons of the past. Since 2022, Bitcoin has increased steadily, and Altcoin has continued to perform for Bitcoin. This prompted many to ask why the alternative season was not achieved.

Why was Alt season calls wrong?

There are many reasons why analysts and influencers have been constantly abused the Alt season.

1. The desire for quick profits

Many investors enter the cryptocurrency market looking for quick gains. Altcoins historically provided greater potential for huge returns compared to bitcoin, which led to repeated speculation that the alternative season was just around the corner. However, in fact, Bitcoin has been the most stable and profitable investment over the past few years, as it has made fixed gains with low risk.

For traditional investors, a 6X return in two years is unusual. Bitcoin has achieved this level of growth below, however some investors remain unhappy and continue to chase high -risk Altcoins in the hope of achieving greater returns. However, the failure to recognize the absence of the ALT season has led to losses for many who have turned into altcoins prematurely.

2. Bitcoin as a safe origin

One of the main reasons behind Altcoins is the importance of the circular portfolios in Bitcoin instead of the US dollar. Instead of assessing Altcoin’s performance in dollars, experienced investors evaluate them in terms of bitcoin value. When Altcoin’s ratios to Bitcoin decrease, it becomes clear that Bitcoin contract is the superior strategy.

For example, in 2021 and 2022, bitcoin value was about 11 ETHEREUM (ETH). Today, the same bitcoin equals about 36 eith. This means that Bitcoin holders have doubled three times their ETH possession by staying in Bitcoin instead of switching to Altcoins. This trend shows the reason that the circular portfolios of Bitcoin are more effective during some market conditions.

3. The increase in altcoin supplies

The common argument for the Alt season in recent years was the huge number of new Altcoins that enter the market. Many believe that with many new symbols created, Bitcoin will inevitably decrease. However, this assumption was defective.

While the number of altcoins increased, the total liquidity amount in the market remained relatively fixed. Instead of more money flowing to Altcoins, the available liquidity has been spread thinner across a greater number of assets. This mitigation prevented any meaningful height in the ALTCOIN market for Bitcoin.

The role of the total circumstances

Another decisive factor in understanding the absence of the Alt season is the total economic conditions, specifically the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

1. Tightening my quantity

One of the strongest arguments against the ALT and Chic season is the continuous federal reserve policy for quantitative tightening. Historically, the Alt season coincided with periods of loose monetary policy, as is the case in 2017 and 2021 when the Federal Reserve did not actively tighten liquidity.

During these courses, bitcoin dominance decreased as excess liquidity in the financial system of investors allowed more risks, leading to increased speculation in Altcoins. However, since 2022, the Federal Reserve has maintained a restricted cash position, which limits the appetite of risk in the market. This has led to a fixed decrease in the performance of Altcoins for Bitcoin.

2. Impact on bitcoin and cocoes

History has shown that bitcoin is often in line with transformations in monetary policy. In the previous session, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline only after the Federal Reserve ended its tightening policies. This time, a similar trend is turned on, as Bitcoin continues to outperform Altcoins as long as the conditions of narrow liquidity persist.

Given the main Altcoin-To-Bitcoin ratios, such as Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC), we can see that Altcoins has continued to lose value against Bitcoin. This reinforces the idea that even the Federal Reserve Axis sends its current policy, Altcoins is likely to continue weak.

Share retail and market morale

Another major factor that contributes to the lack of a Alt season is the lack of a strong retail investor.

1. Social risk standards

There was a decisive element in the previous ALT seasons that was a strong participation of the investor in the field of retail. This can be measured using social risk measures, which follow the level of noise and participate in the coil -coded area.

In 2017 and 2021, these scales showed sustainable increases, reflecting the increasing retail enthusiasm. However, in the current session, social participation remained relatively silent, indicating that the retail madness required to lead the alternative season is not yet.

2. Bitcoin dominance on other encryption

Retail investors often enter the market late, as they buy to Altcoins at the height of the noise. However, the current environment lacks the same speculative enthusiasm seen in previous sessions.

Bitcoin reaches its highest levels, but most Altcoins, including Ethereum, has not followed its example yet. This difference highlights the different market conditions compared to the previous alternative seasons.

What should happen for the ALT season to start?

In order for the alternative season to begin, Quinn believes that many of the main conditions must be fulfilled:

1. Federal Reserve Axis The Federal Reserve needs a shift from quantitative tightening to a more distinct monetary policy. Until the liquidity conditions improve, the risk appetite will remain low.
2. Bitcoin dominance decreased It is necessary to decrease meaningful in bitcoin dominance to refer to the beginning of the real Alt season. So far, domination has only increased, which enhances bitcoin power.
3. Increase retail sharing – The return of Hamas will be retail, as it was measured by social risk standards and trading sizes, a major indication of the imminent ALT season.
4. Altcoin surrender Many Altcoin-To Bitcoin pairs still have a space to drop before exit. Historically, Altcoins only begins to recover after a period of extreme surrender.

Final ideas

While many of them have impatiently expected the Alt season, the reality is that the market conditions have not yet been in support of them. In order for the factors of macroeconomics and the main liquidity, it is possible that Bitcoin will remain the most powerful assets in the encryption space. Investors who stayed in Bitcoin instead of switching to Altcoins have seen much better returns, and many of those who jumped to Altcoins very early, often witnessed a weak performance.

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