Analysts explain why bitcoin can recover soon or break it more difficult

Bitcoin just decreased 24 % of its highest level ever-what happens after that? Analysts say that BTC is “very close to its local bottom”, but can the black Swan event send it somewhat?

Total disorders shake bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCThe price was rugged. After reaching the highest level ever 109,114 dollars in January when President Donald Trump He took office and established a more supportive management, and the market took a sharp turn.

As of March 13, Bitcoin sits about $ 82,600, a decrease of 24 % of its peak in January, after that sinking To the lowest level in four months from 76600 dollars on March 11.

The market faces the opposite winds of multiple directions. Wall Street tends to be aversion to the risks, and the American recession fears, and the policies of the new tariffs of Trump Add Understanding in the mixture.

Many investors were also Disappointed By lacking new BTC purchases under the Trump administration’s strategic reserve plan, which some hoped to provide a fixed purchase force for Bitcoin.

On the total economic side, inflation data Absolute On March 12, a short moment of optimism was offered. The consumer price index increased by only 0.2 % in February, which slows down to an annual inflation rate of 2.8 % – a decrease from 0.5 % in January. The basic consumer price index, which comes out of food and energy, has also fell by 3.1 %, its lowest level since April 2021.

The market’s reaction was initially positively to the most softened consumer price index data. Bitcoin paid $ 84,000, and Altcoins saw two numbers. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also recorded 100 slight altitudes.

But optimism did not last. With the progress of today, BTC and shares have wiped most of its gains, which fell due to the Trump tariff war against the main commercial partners.

In an exciting step, Trump slapped a 25 % tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Claim Canada for revenge with a 25 % tariff for $ 21 billion in US goods.

Just hours later, the European Union launched behind Thanks to its reprisal definitions $ 28 billion on American products, which increases the intensification of trade tensions.

These procedures have placed investors on the edge of the abyss, as the market morale has turned towards the risk approach, as the most secure and safer cash assets such as gold and bonds become more attractive than volatile plays such as bitcoin.

With all these players, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads. Will you settle and prepare for another operation, or other corrections on the horizon? Let’s dig deeper.

Foundation declines

Since February 13, Al -Baqa’a Bitcoin etfs It was under pressureWith money flowing at an aggressive pace. While there were a few days of pure positive flows, they were small in size compared to heavy external flows on most days.

The worst blow came On February 25, when ETFS witnessed its largest flow for one day-more than a billion dollars, which represents a clear feeling of risks among institutional investors.

Despite external flows, as of March 12, IBIT from Blackrock is still the dominant ETF on the market, with approximately 568000 BTC. Febllity’s FBTC and Gramscale’s GBTC follow -up, 197,500 BTC and 196000 BTC, respectively.

Adding a political class to bitcoin narration, at least six members of the Prime Minister Trump Cabinet Hold Bitcoin, either directly or indirectly through the circulating investment boxes.

Among them, with the Minister of Health and Humanitarian Services Robert F. Kennedy Junior is the largest detected share, with a Bitcoin Federation Calculation ranging between one million dollars and $ 5 million.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besent owns between $ 250,001 and $ 500,000 from ISHARES Bitcoin Trust ETF. While Bessent pledged to strip his property within 90 days, his position sheds light on the increasing relationship between Bitcoin and US Supreme Policy makers.

Meanwhile, the open interest of Bitcoin, a crucial scale that explains the total value of BTC derivative contracts, was in a declining cycle.

after climax At 70 billion dollars on January 22, after the new open interest at all in Bitcoin at all. With the BTC retreating, it followed OI, as it decreased to $ 45.7 billion on March 11, on the same day, BTC reached its lowest level for four months.

However, in the last two days, the open interest in climbing began again, adding more than a billion dollars starting from March 13, coinciding with the recovery of BTC prices.

Heavy ETF flows, dropping open attention, draws a picture of institutional frequency and reduce speculative activity over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin in January was fueled by powerful ETF flows and high -voltage parking, but once uncertainty in macro and Trump’s war escalated, the market became defensive.

The latest open recovery is a possible indication that traders are cautiously from long situations, but the recovery is slow. The continuous increase in both OI and ETF flows will be it is very important for Bitcoin to restore momentum.

History hints in a recovery

The last decline of Bitcoin was from its highest level ever sharp, but historical trends and technical indicators indicate that this may be either a temporary bottom or the beginning of a deeper correction.

Technical analyst Cryptocon notes that Bitcoin has now reached RSI Bollinger Band levels, which is historically low, a point rarely remains BTC for a long time.

To destroy this – the relative strength index measures momentum, while the Bolinger ranges show fluctuations. When the RSI Bollinger % reaches its lowest level, it indicates that Bitcoin is at the sale level, which means that the negative side pressure is likely to be exhausted.

In previous sessions, when BTC reaches the lowest levels of RSI Bollinger %, this was a strong local bottom before the next stage.

According to Cryptocon, Bitcoin just completed the fourth stage, which is part of the market cycle where prices exceed the highest previous level ever-something we saw in January 2013, December 2016 and November 2020.

In all of these three sessions, BTC was a correction after collapse before the assembly to a new height during the next 9 to 12 months.

He believes that this market cycle is acting just like March 2017, when BTC faced deep correction but then recovered for more gathering. If this is the case, this means that we are still months away from the top of the course.

However, this optimistic view is not globally acceptable. Doctor Profit, another respectable analyst, places potential scenarios for the following movement of BTC.

In the regular market environment, the local bottom of the BTC should form between $ 68,000 and $ 74,000, and the market value of the achieved value index confirmed.

The MVRV index measures whether Bitcoin is exaggerated or denied by its value by comparing the current market price to the average purchase price for all BTC in trading.

Now, mvrv Suggest BTC is approaching a strong bottom area, which means that the risk of the negative side is limited unless something radically happens.

This is where the risk of Swan Black comes. While Doctor Profit initially believed that the Black Swan event was unlikely to be modern economic transformations – such as Trump’s aggressive movements, world trade war concerns, and wider recession fears – make it less confident.

The severe global economic stagnation, the financial crisis, or the collapse of the main encryption industry may push Bitcoin much less, and perhaps about $ 50,000. While still tending towards the first scenario, it no longer excludes the process of wiping the full market.

Mixed marks. The historical Bitcoin courses indicate that this is a health decline before another gathering, but global circumstances are rarely unstable.

Currently, investors must stay careful, watch the main support levels, and be ready for increased fluctuations.

Although historical data prefers recovery, the markets do not move in a vacuum, and can exceed external shocks until the strongest technical indicators. Never invest more than you can lose.