Is this the end of Bitcoin Bull Run – or just a healthy correction?

Bitcoin reached the highest new level ever at $ 109,114 on January 20. However, instead of fueling the additional gains, it faced constant pressure for sale, as about 20 % of the peak decreased to this writing. Recent weeks have witnessed weak demand, dull accumulation, and the increasing fear among investors in the short term.

Initially, we note that such corrections are not uncommon in the historical bitcoin courses, and often driven by transformations in liquidity, the site of the derivative market, and the feelings of investors. Below, I will discuss the continuous Bitcoin liquidity trends, the derivative market activity, and the behavior of the pregnant women to see if the original cryptocurrency has already reached this course or passes a temporary correction.

From distribution to potential accumulation

Bitcoin market courses are driven by accumulation and distribution. While a clear distribution stage appeared in late February 2025, modern movements in the accumulation/distribution index (A/D) reveal a strong course of accumulation, followed by intense sale pressure during the past few weeks.

After reaching the lowest point in mid -March, the index is now recovering, indicating that the accumulation is resumed. Historically, these balls in the A/D index have preceded periods of price fixation or recovery. However, whether this represents the beginning of the persistent accumulation stage or just a temporary bounce still to be seen.

As this trend was confirmed, immediate trading volumes on the central stock exchanges decreased by 19.9 %, and derivative trading volumes decreased by 20.9 %, according to February 2025. Coindsk data review review. In addition, the open interest on exchange derivatives decreased by 29.8 %, which is the lowest level since November 2024.

The situation increased after penetration by bybit, which led to a loss of $ 1.4 billion, which increased the pressure pressure and the accumulation of accumulation with the intensification of liquidity fears and the intensification of uncertainty in the market.

Rau liquidity boundary bitcoin boundaries

Constant -liquidity – typical market behavior during corrections – is one of the main causes of Bitcoin’s difficulty in reaching new levels. according to Glassnode dataThe net capital flows stopped to the bitcoin, with the maximum duties increased by only 0.67 % per month. This means that the market lacks the necessary flow of the new capital, which hinders the price increases.

In addition, hot supply – a major indicator of active trading liquidity – decreased from 5.9 % to 2.8 %, a decrease of more than 50 %. The exchange flows also decreased by 54 %, which enhances more that the trading activity slows down and the demand side pressure weakens

On the side of the derivatives, the open interest in the future contracts of Bitcoin decreased from 57 billion dollars to ATH to $ 37 billion (-35 %), indicating a decrease in speculative interest and hedging activity.

Glassnode The data also shows that the 30 -day trading amount for short -term holder losses has reached $ 7 billion, which represents the largest constant loss event in the cycle, yet it remains less severe than May 2021 and the bear market 2022.

UTXO Age data reveals a strong condemnation

Cryptoquant’s Cap-UTXO Age Bands, who tracks the value of the US dollar for the coin by age since the last transfer, explains that a large share of the CAP achieved from Bitcoin is kept in the long run.

The collapse of the maximum achieved across life groups as of March 23, 2025, the following:

• 0-1 days: 5.1 billion dollars
• One day – 1 week: 26.1 billion dollars
• 1 week – 1 month: 80.7 billion dollars
• 1-3 months: 146.5 billion dollars
• 3-6 months: 264.2 billion dollars
• 6-12 months: 96.5 billion dollars
• 12-18 months: 61.9 billion dollars
• 18 months – 2 years: 22.2 billion dollars
• 2-3 years: 34.6 billion dollars
• 3-5 years: 111.4 billion dollars
• 5-7 years: 8.5 billion dollars
• 7-10 years: 7.9 billion dollars
• More than 10 years: 303.4 billion dollars

We can see that UTXOS is in a range less than one week of $ 31.2 billion, which represents only 2.7 % of the total maximum achieved. This indicates that although there is short -term trading, it is not the basic strength that leads the market. The low -transmitted metal currency indicates that most new buyers are still occupying their positions, and that many participants are not characterized.

On the contrary, the group of 3 to 6 months now has the largest share of the maximum bitcoin for $ 264.2 billion. This regiment has remained largely not affected by recent price fluctuations, which enhances long -term condemnation in the market.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin, which was held for more than 10 years, represents 303.4 billion dollars, which is the largest achieved value in all ages.

Combated, the current distribution of UTXO Age supports the bullish accumulation of accumulation, as long-term bearers remain confident, speculative flipping is subject to, and the offer generally continues to tighten-conditions that have historically set the basis for restoring strong prices.

ETF flows and market impact

Delay ETF data From 5 to 21 to 21 March, 2025, it highlights mixed signals, as some investment funds circulated from strong flows while others continue to face large output flows, indicating that although bitcoin price procedures remain under pressure, the long -term institutional interest supports market morale.

• IBIT (Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF) has recorded a total flow of 39,774 BTC.
• FBTC (Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF) has seen a 11392 BTC flow.
• ARKB (Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF) was attracted 2021 BTC, while BTCO (BTCO’s Bitcoin ETF) was recorded 2,678 BTC at clear flows.
• GBTC (Trust Bitcoin’s Trust) continued to face external flows, losing 22,526 BTC.
• Collectively, Etfs Bitcoin added 36,138 BTC during this period, indicating that institutional demand is still valid.

Final ideas

Bitcoin moves in a complex environment after that, where a mixture of short -term and long -term wind is seen clearly. Rausing liquidity appears in both stain and derivative markets with low slow and speculative capital flows. However, accumulation is the apostasy, and UTXO data shows a strong long-term condemnation and short-term low sales, institutional flows-despite volatility-prefer Bitcoin, with net flows across several traded investment boxes. While price pressure is continuing, these basic dynamics indicate that the current stage may represent healthy unification instead of the end of the current bull cycle.