Is the four-year cycle Bitcoin dead?

As financial institutions, corporations and governments have increasingly committed to Bitcoin, some cryptic market observers have begun to examine whether the four-year cycle model is usually applied to Bitcoin is still relevant. Let’s see how this cycle is designed and why many doubt it is still reliable.

X Account called Bitcoin Archive Published a survey Ask if the four-year cycles of Bitcoin ended. In ten hours over 10,000 accounts, it threw his votes, and a positive response was conducted 52%. It does not necessarily mean that four-year cycles are no longer reliable, but, rather, rather many see that the landscape changes.

Understanding four-year-year bitcoin cycles

When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he encoded a mechanism that was in two of the mining award in two of four years in the case known as “halved”. Drastically reduces the inflow of new bitcoins to the market. He raises the costs of unlocking new coins through miners because miners must spend the same amount of resources to obtain 50% of what they previously halved. Therefore, they must sell what are mine for more prices to maintain their work profitable.

Since the price of BTC is mostly guided by demand and offer, a four-year cycle for Bitcoin is very natural. The number of new coins is reduced every four years, and the prices of these coins are inevitably go up.

The four-year cycle Bitcoin has several phases. Within 12-18 months after the transition, the price of BTC increases and hit the new-time. Some traders expect even for the bull market for a few weeks in front of the transition. Usually the bull market inherits the bear when the BTC price reaches a new record. The price drops in several phases, significantly decreases compared to the tip price, but mostly, remains greater than before the halvament. It makes Bitcoin persistent long-term breeder.

In the past, every cycle of transitions of years and years of sharp price drop, while uneven years saw price growth. Every year after crossing the year, the price of bitcoin is characterized by a new record and 1000% or even greater growth. However, 2021. was only 57% of the annual growth rate due to the strong bear market by the end of the year.

Although the four-year cycle was a reliable model in the past, the last few years has seen new tendencies. For example, it was discovered that 2024. Many mines preferred not sell What they could and keep him believed that the price of BTC would go higher, so they did not see any sense of exchanging Bitcoin for Fiat’s money in the middle of Bull.

Can we still rely on the four-year cycle Bitcoin?

Last halves were held in 2024 years. Years. In 2025. The Bitcoin price has already updated its historical maximum, reaching $ 108,786. January 20. This can be seen as a confirmation of a four-year logic. However, if the four-year cycle is dead, then we can face something new: a strong bear reversal or to extend the bull market until the coming years.

In recent months, the BTC price was trembling despite favorable regulations, higher adoption rates and other news about Bullish. Therefore, CRIPTO investors ask if the bull market is actually continued. It can be viewed as a sign of change that has done a four-year cycle obsolete.

The co-founder of the capital Sincration Ryan Vatkins is one of the prominent advocates of the idea of ​​the death of a four-year cycle. In January 2025. Years listed If it were better to reject conditions such as the cycle and Altcoin season. He believes that the entry of Bitcoin trading stock exchange will transfer the Bitcoin market to welcome institutional investors to participate in legal conditions.

Vatkins believes that BitCoin Potential is now obvious, but it has not yet been reflected at the level of adoption. So, now Bitcoin enters a new era of greater adoption, maturity and security. Governments and institutional investors will encourage this, and the price will be less embarrassment.

It is worth saying that the four-year cycle model was never law. Market observers predicted that variable market conditions could change the way the prices of Bitcoin were acting. However, how to result in surveying, almost half of the people still relies on the four-year bitcoin cycle.

Although we can consider the current phase as a bull market, we must recognize that global economic uncertainty does not allow crypto investors enjoying driving. When the Dust of the Trading War settles, we will have a better chance to see if the four-year cycle still works. If the cycle is alive, then 2026 should be the years of the bear market. The state of the crypt market 2026 can serve as a litmus test.