Global Liquidity of 108T in the amount of 108T should send BitCoin to the Moon – so why is it?

Global M2 The monetary material is in all weather high – so why not rise Bitcoin? Was something broken or a break was postponed?

Markets on the edge as well as a meeting with fed meetings

Markets move in Federal Reserve18-19. 18-19 Meeting with the installation of uncertainty as economic conditions remain unstable. Stock materials are stumbled, inflation It remains persistent, and investors review their expectations to reduce interest rates.

Adding unpredictability, the tariff policy of President Trump and Federal dismissal launched fresh concerns due to the wider economic appearance, injection of further instability in the already fragile market.

Despite the turbulence, the Federal Open Market Board is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, with the FEDVATCH CME group tool assigned 99% probability that there is no one in the immediate adjustment.

However, the real focus slipped the first price on time. Current projections propose potential reduction in June, with 55% chance These rates will be relocated to 4-4.25%.

All in all, investors predict the cumulative reduction of three-quarters of a percentage point in 2025. years, which could bring the FED reference assessment at 3.5-3.75%.

In the midst of this insecurity, the financial markets reacted abruptly. The S & P 500 rejected more than 8% of February 19. February, while Native is 4% to 10. Marta – the worst trading day of 2022. Years.

Meanwhile, the instability index, at its highest level, reflected difficulties in investors, facing maneuvering switching policies, especially Trump’s tariff shipment.

Bitcoin (Btc) Also struggled to find their footers, the remaining range – about $ 82,300 from 18. Marta – in January in January of $ 109.12.

The question is now: What follows the following? How will markets react if Fed signals policy change? And what does all this mean for crypto in the coming weeks?

Rising M2 Liquidity

Global liquidity is alignment, and history suggests that risky funds such as Bitcoins can soon react. On day of 10. Marta, global M2 cash material reached $ 108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from $ 2025 of 104.5 trillion in the amount of 104.5 trillion in the amount of 6 January.

However, in this cycle, the price of Bitcoin has shown inconsistencies despite the increase in liquidity, collecting issues about whether the response is delayed in the game.

M2 Cash supply is used as a wide measure of global liquidity, including cash, check deposits and easy convertible means near money.

When M2 is expanded, liquidity usually finds its way to a high investment, leading to sets in stock, goods and bitcoin. In contrast, contractions in M2 often coincide with periods of risk, where property is struggling to find inclined momentum.

The closer look at the historical data emphasizes the powerful correlation of bitcoin with the growth of M2. The most significant driving of Bitcoin’s bulls came in during the period of fast liquidity spread, while the falls in M2 preceded the price reduction or extended consolidation.

However, the key observation is that Bitcoin does not respond immediately to liquidity. The research suggests the average lag of approximately 10 weeks before Bitcoin fully reflects changes in m2 growth.

The upper M2 graph additionally supports this narrative. The recovery of Bitcoin since its 2022-2023 Loke coincided with a significant m2 growth. Similarly, in mid-2024. Year, the renewed extension in M2 was accompanied by Bitcoin who reached new heights.

However, in early 2025. year, Bitcoin entered the consolidation period despite M2, continuing his rise. It seems that the ingredient of liquidity change rates, not an absolute level.

The deeper analysis of Bitcoin’s annual returns in relation to the annual change of M2 reveals a clearer form – the strongest Bitcoin’s Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin, when liquidity growth quickly speeds up, not speeding up.

Thus, the mere expansion of liquidity is not enough to initiate an interruption – acceleration in the growth of M2 is a critical factor.

Quantitative tightening can be closer to her end

Quantitative tightening of the Federal Reserve (KT), which was run From June 2022. years can be closer to its final part.

From 18. Marta, there were more than $ 6.2 million paid in PolimarketWith traders who assign a 100% probability that the Fed will finish KT until 30. April.

KT is in the heart of the opposite of quantitative facilitation (KE). Instead of injecting liquidity in the system by purchasing bonds, FED has enabled funds to maturing its balance sheet, effectively withdrawing money from circulation.

This policy, in addition to the hikes of aggressive rates, helped by combating inflationary pressures, but also created liquidity restrictions that weighed in markets. While the actions and crypto funds managed to gather despite the effects of KT tightening, concerns appeared that the continuous reduction of balance sheet balance could empty liquidity at the time of growing economic uncertainty.

Minorial meeting of FOMC discovered that several policy makers were open to slowdown or pause of KT, to a large extent due to insecurity around the ceiling of federal debt and evolving the conditions in the money market export.

Analysts have in mind that emergency measures of the state administration for maintaining funded government operations inject temporary liquidity into the system.

This made it difficult for the Fed to accurately assess true level of reserves, creating a risk that it could pull too much liquidity too fast, increasing financial market instability.

Despite the growing expectations almost the concept of KT, not all analysts agree with the passage of time.

Barclays maintains its projection that KT will conclude between September and October, claiming that pausing in March or can only restart reductions would be ineffective later.

Meanwhile, Vrightson ICAP Analysts will believe that the pace will slow down the property, not fully stop them that the whole station could force Feda to continue buying funds later, creating communication characteristics later.

Others, such as the research company LH Meier, Caution that every break in KT could risk being converted to complete stop, as it can later be shown later, especially if market conditions remain fragile.

Fed ability to measure the right stop point was complicated by mixed signals from liquidity indicators.

The research of the main banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting proposed by KT can conclude between June and July.

It is expected that at the end of the process by the end of the process, it will be dropped in the amount of $ 6.8 trillion from $ 6.8 trillion from $ 98 million in 2022. years to about $ 6,4 trillion dollars to the end of the process.

However, assessments suggest that bank reserves will only minimize $ 3.1 trillion from $ 3.3 trillion, while the Fed Liquidity – remained below $ 100 billion, which indicates that financial conditions can already be firm.

Historically, unwrapping KT was a sensitive process, and if the Fed is signaling the stop in the coming months, it can effectively mark the end of the program.

If this happens, the implications could be wide long-term interest rates, a weaker dollar and potentially increased demand for risky means such as Bitcoin and capital.

Surg Liquidity satisfies institutional insecurity

While breeding M2 is a monetary offer was a powerful precursor Bitcoin Bull, chain indicators and institutional development suggest that the short-term look may not still be placed with that trend still.

Despite the global M2, reaching record high, Bitcoin prices showed signs of exhaustion. Ki Young It, General Corrupt Corrupt Corrupt, Metrically Metric Metric, pointing to drying fresh liquidity and new whales that deserve BTC at lower prices.