Bitcoin worst Q1 in 7 years conflicts with record inflation

What changed in just three months to press the Bitcoin of $ 109,000 to $ 82K? Was it just information about inflation or is something bigger that happens behind the scene?

Bitcoin is the coldest Q1 in 7 years

Just three months ago the atmosphere on the crypto market was electric. Bitcoin (Btc) has grown by $ 109,000, Etherum (El) He held strongly, and the fresh wave of optimism swallowed through the space, floating through pro-cripto Donald Trump to the white house. But as we approach K1 2025, that optimism softly faded into uncertainty.

As at 31. Marta, Bitcoin trades about $ 82,000, marking almost 13% drop for a quarter. It is on the way to register your weakest K1 Performance in seven years, ending the two-year ride of solid winnings of the first quarter.

To put it in perspective, Bitcoin jumped 72% in K1 2023 and climbed at another 69% in K1 2024. It was a bad spill in the first quarter of 2018. When he has hampered almost 50% during the fall Anyone Boom.

However, Etherum faces a lot of steeper fall. The second largest cryptocurrency of a market cap lost a stunning 46.4% of this quarter, now trading near $ 1,800. It is almost identical to its 46.6% drop in K1 2018, making it the worst performance of the first quarter in seven years.

However, when we reduce, it has been taught by a lower image to appear. Between 2017 and 2025. The Bitcoin ended K1 in red four times nine, while Etherum saw three lost K1 in the same move.

Why this particular drop is is a wider background: lasting inflation, fragile investor confidence and intensifying geopolitical risks.

So, the question is now – was it just a seasonal slip or sign of deeper problems? Can prices recover as a macro environment goes to Crypt’s benefit? Let’s look closer.

Decoding crypto slider

28. Marta, the Cripto market hit suddenly after the US published February basic personal consumption expenses (PCE) Index – Key feeding funds carefully followed by federal reserves.

The increase during the year came to 2.8%, something above the expected 2.7%, but only enough to week investors.

Unlike the main inflation, the core called food and energy, offering a clearer view of lasting price trends. And that clear view revealed that inflation was not cooling as fast as markets.

This surprise in the inflation landed equally that the global trade was worried. President Donald Trump’s hard tariff strategy has introduced a new wave of macroeconomic tension.

Started in early February with 25% Tariff threat Targeting Canadian and Mexican goods. This quickly followed the cleaning of 20% of tariffs on all Chinese imports, which was guided by the citizens’ role in the fentanyl trade.

Of the steel and aluminum to the car and even Venezuelan oil, several sectors were fairly honestly. The administration published a list of about 15 countries – “dirty 15” marked – that could soon face reciprocal tariffs based on imbalance and geopolitical friction.

Global pushback was quick and strong. China responded to tariffs on American agricultural exports. The EU is preparing a multiphase duty plan that covers approximately $ 28 billion in American goods. Canada returned with CAD 60 billion dollars in retalance, while Mexico actually finalizes its measures in early April.

The markets, surprisingly, did not take over uncertainty well. Both S & P 500 and Nasband 100 are rejected over 2% when the PCE data was published, deleting more than $ 1 trillion on the market cover between them.

Cripto was withdrawn in a wider move from risk. While annoyed investors were killed, property like ETE, Ripple (XRP), Solana (Salt), and the other Altcoys broke their recent gains, while Bitcoin was struggling under the intensification of macro pressure.

According to Slocnode, most recent sales come from short-term carriers – those who bought Bitcoin in the last five months and now respond to prices movements.

Meanwhile, long-term holders – investors who hold more than 155 days – remain in profit and seems to be the main source of current activities that take profits.

With long-term inflation expectations now pointed to 4.1% – their highest level since 1993. – Many traders transferred to the defensive attitude, capital movements in cash. Just three months ago, before rolling the tariff, these expectations were closer to 2.6%.

What kind of consumer confidence says about Crypt’s next moves

According to the Conference Committee, the American consumer feeling continued His slider down in March. Consumer confidence index, published 25. Marta, fell for the fourth consecutive month, lands at 92.9.

However, more about the expectation index, which stood 9.6 points at 65.2. It is its lowest reading since 2013. years and far below the 80-point threshold, which is often seen as a warning sign of the forthcoming recession.

The index of expectation of measures of both households see revenues, business conditions and business perspectives in the coming months. The fall to these levels suggests people calibrate their view again. And when she hung expectations, risky behavior tends to move just as fast.

This growth caution begins to appear in markets. Only 37.4% of survey participants now believe that shares will increase over the next year – a sharp drop of 10 points from February and the oldest monthly decline in more than a year.

At the same time, job optimism is fading. The percentage of consumers expects more jobs fell from 18.8% to 16.7%, while those who predict fewer jobs at 28.5%.

It is a climate that does not support difficult risk bets. With inflation, they still run hot and global trade uncertainty increases, investors are withdrawn – and crypto is among the first to feel the pressure. The risk appetite is cooling, and the capital begins to switch to safer, more defensive reproductions.

Further decreases in front of us?

As K1 approaches near downs and for crypto and traditional markets, now a big question is what follows?

We see signs of fatigue over the board. American actors, especially, flashing the wider weakness. “S & P 500 Futures has officially entered the correction territory,” Kobeisi letter noted, emphasizing that more than 2.7 trillion on the market has been erased over only four trading sessions.

In the meantime, NASDAK 100, meanwhile, states only 5.5% above the official level of bear market. It is significant because Cripto, especially Bitcoin, became everything correlated with Tech-difficult assets. When an insade is scattered, Cripto often follows the suit.

Even the main institutional purchase does not reverse the trend. The latest move by MicroStrategegi – purchase Bitcoin worth $ 1.92 worth and adding over 22,000 BTCs to his farms failed to put a slider.

“Sailor just added 22,048 BTC … but Bitcoin was still closing a week in red,” he watched a cryptocuant analyst Maartunn, indicating the power of macro crossing heavy weight.