Bitcoin recovery, but it is not certain that it will happen

In recent days, Bitcoin price He was a little recovery. The problem is that many speculators may explain the last bounce as an attempt to resume the bull run, while there are still clear risks to more declines.

Small bounce of bitcoin price

Tuesday (the day before yesterday) for a brief moment Bitcoin price Even decrease less $ 77,000.

Last Saturday, it was $ 86,000, so it was a real collapse, albeit content.

In particular, on Sunday, about $ 82,000 gradually fell, while on Monday, with the reopening of American stock markets, suddenly decreased first to 79,000 dollars, then to $ 77,000, and the next night, for a short moment, it decreased to the bottom of this last threshold.

Strong and rapid decreases such as decline on Monday generally decrease to the forced position of the long positions learned, which means that sales that no person decided but only automatically arose to cover the situations that had been born debt.

This type of decrease generates shortcomings in the direction of the price, and in fact in the following days such efficiency has been filled.

Indeed, on Tuesday, shortly before the opening of the USA markets, the price returned to $ 81,000, and during the night it reached 83,000 dollars.

So it was a recovery due to a closure Implementation resulting from forced liquidation on MondayTo the extent that it may not be completed yet, as there are still some to recover above $ 84,000.

The risks of a possible recovery in the bitcoin price

In light of this, it will be incorrect to explain this small apostasy as a Try to recover.

Instead, in all aspects only a temporary stop, even if this does not necessarily mean that the lineage should be resumed in the end.

The truth is that in the next seven days there is no special Volatility in the market Bitcoin It is expected, but in the second part of next week, fluctuation can return.

Although it is not possible to determine whether this volatility may be bullish or declining, the described scenario earlier tends to balance more towards this second hypothesis.

In particular, the price of gold in the thunderbolt stage that started on December 18, which is the day of the bitcoin price in running at the end of 2024, and this continuous growth that does not seem to want to stop clearly to how nearly three months of the capital journey of risk assets, such as Bitcoin, to risk, such as gold.

Donald Trump’s tariff policy

The main problem is the risk of stagnation in the United States of America, which increased to 40 % On polymarket.

This, in turn, is the result of economic policy, especially for commercial policy Donald TrumpGiven that The definitions it imposes In half of the world, it has a dual negative impact, as it reduces trade, which also reduces the possibility of generating wealth in the United States of America, while increasing inflation on the other hand.

To say the truth, the data issued yesterday Inflation in the United States In February, it was definitely positive and better than expected, but it should not be forgotten that the largest part of the definitions began to take place in March.

Markets are actually a decrease in inflation even in March, but they are not limited to that. In fact, they are already happy to increase inflation starting in April, especially the risk of increasing recession for 2025.

In such a scenario, if it is Politica CommerCiale E economica di trump It does not change, it is reasonable to expect more problems even in the financial markets, including those Bitcoin.

The following price levels

According to the analyst Matthew HaylandIt will be necessary to close more than $ 89,000, assuming the end of the current bear in the short term.

This scenario as of today does not seem to be particularly likely.

Hailand also warns that if the bear’s appeal, the two subsequent goals can be $ 74,000, and perhaps even $ 69,000.

In other words, it may end up losing all the gains obtained with Trump Trade.

For all this, it must be added that in such stages, the difficult period often continues until the middle of the year, even if it starts to recover, for example, at the end of April.

The suffering of altcoins

Discussing different altcoins.

In fact, the declining trend in the prices of many Altcoins was so severe that it may be exhausted in some cases.

For example, price ethereum In Bitcoin has reached the lowest level since June 2020, to the point that it seems difficult to decrease significantly. The minimum level was in 2020 0.021 BTC, while it is now at 0.022.

Moreover, and Altseason index from CMC It reveals that Encryption Now in the full Bitcoin season, to the extent that its level is unlikely to decrease significantly, given that on a scale from 0 to 100 is 13.

This does not mean at all that Altseason may start soon, but this may mean that the collapse of Altcoin prices may be near the bottom.