Bitcoin (BTC): $500,000 in 2025?

The beginning of 2025 marks a historic turning point for Bitcoin. Technical indicators are showing in the green, institutional investors are flocking heavily into ETFs, and the macroeconomic outlook is improving. Now, the $500K scenario is very likely in 2025.

Bitcoin’s technical indicators are very positive

Deep analysis of on-chain data reveals a situation Exceptionally favorable. the MVRV-Z score, a leading indicator that measures the ratio between price and market valueIt indicates that we are still far from the peak of the cycle, Reinforcing the idea that the uptrend is not over yet.

The current levels are strangely reminiscent of it May 2017which is the period during which Bitcoin was traded Only a few thousand dollars. This historical comparison indicates Great potential for growth.

B cycle indicatorwhich tracks the 111- and 350-day moving averages, provides additional insight. The increasing distance between these two averages indicates… Resuming bullish momentum.

Moreover, after the consolidation period in 2024, it seems that Bitcoin will enter More vigorous growth stage Which can extend over several months.

Exponential phase of the Bitcoin cycle

Historical data shows that Bitcoin cycles often include a “post-halving cooling period” of 6-12 months Before entering the exponential growth phase.

We are approaching that breaking pointEven taking into account the diminishing returns compared to previous cycles, The potential gains remain significant.

Bitcoin: An increasingly scarce asset

The numbers speak for themselves: In November 2024, ETFs held 75,000 bitcoins while only 13,500 were mined.. This buying pressure, which is 5.58 times greater than monthly production, is creating unprecedented tension on available supply.

CoinGlass data reveals this Only 2.25 million Bitcoins remain on exchangesThis is a historically low level that indicates massive accumulation by long-term investors.

Bitcoin replaces gold

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recently surpassed its gold fund in terms of assets under managementA powerful symbolic event. This development represents a major paradigm shift: Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself A reliable alternative to gold in institutional portfolios.

Bitcoin ETFs have already raised over 936,830 Bitcoins, and… The threshold of one million could be exceeded before the end of the year.

Revised upward price forecast

Thus, analysis of previous cycles indicates that after the recent historical peak of $70,000, Double or triple You can pay with Bitcoin $140,000 and $210,000.

Bitcoin’s main cycle chart, which aggregates several on-chain metrics, places the overvaluation level at around $190,000, It is a goal that seems increasingly realistic.

Favorable macroeconomic context for Bitcoin

Bitcoin advances in 2024 despite the strength of the US dollarwhich is an unusual situation because these two assets usually develop inversely.

This could therefore lead to a possible weakness in the value of the dollar in 2025 Amplify the increase in the price of BTC.

Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global money supply M2, also point to improving conditions for Bitcoin.

Towards a Bitcoin law thanks to Trump

“Bitcoin Law” draft law, With the support of the president-elect Trumpcould radically change the landscape.

This initiative envisages the creation of a strategic reserve of one million Bitcoinor about 5% of the total available supply.

Such an approach would put Bitcoin on the same level Gold in the US National Reserve Strategy.

All countries will scramble to acquire Bitcoin

The impact of the potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would be significant. With only 2.25 million Bitcoins available on exchangesThe US government acquired one million bitcoins That would create unprecedented buying pressure.

Thus this situation can result The race of accumulation between nationslikely to pay The price is about one million dollars.

The year 2025 has all the ingredients to be exceptional for Bitcoin. The convergence of solid fundamentals, increasing institutional adoption, and potential government support could push Bitcoin to new heights. The bold scenario is $1.5 million It could then become a reality sooner than expected.

Disclaimer

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.