Retail demand for BTC provides strong support in a weaker cryptocurrency market

By Omkar Godbole (All times are Eastern time unless otherwise noted)

Bitcoin and most major cryptocurrencies are weaker after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a proxy for institutional activity, denied reports of the listing of futures contracts linked to XRP and SOL. Traditional markets are also holding their breath in preparation for the expected increase in interest rates from the Bank of Japan on Friday.

Although BTC’s trading range remains above $100,000, retail demand remains strong. Glassnode The shrimp and crab pool, which includes addresses holding up to 10 BTC, absorbed 1.9 times the newly mined supply last month, for a total of more than 25,600 BTC. At the same time, holders of long-term bonds have slowed their spending and profit-taking activities, indicating a cautious, but firm, commitment to their investments.

However, dropping below $100,000 could be costly. According to Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis, that would “frame Monday’s inauguration as a news-selling event and the narrative could change very quickly.”

Reports suggests The number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP has risen to an all-time high of 2,083, indicating increased accumulation and confidence in their future performance.

In the world of innovation, gossip Bitcoin synth Gaining momentum on X. These synthetic assets allow users to profit from Bitcoin price movements without actually owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Synths can be traded or used as collateral in lending protocols, avoiding the complexities associated with specialized tokens and bridges.

Ethereum’s Layer 2 protocols are also making headlines with record transaction volumes, even as concerns remain about their capacity approaching limits.

On the macroeconomic front, recent data from the Department of Labor shows that the “rents for all renters” index, an indicator of housing inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), It rose at a slower pace last quarter. The data suggests that recent concerns about inflation may be overblown and that the Fed could move away from its hawkish outlook, which would be a positive signal for risk assets. Stay alert!

What to watch

• encryption
• Macro
  • January 23, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Department of Labor Versions Unemployment Insurance weekly claims report for the week ending January 18.
    • Initial Unemployment Claims Corporation. 215 thousand versus the previous one. 217 thousand.
  • January 23, 10:00 a.m.: National Association of Realtors Versions December 2024 US Existing Home Sales Report.
    • Existing Home Sales Corporation. 4.16 million versus the previous one. 4.15 p.m.
    • Previous Monthly Existing Home Sales. 4.8%.
  • January 23, 4:30 p.m.: The Federal Reserve releases its report Report H.4.1the central bank’s balance sheet, for the week ending January 22.
    • Previous total reserves. $6.83 trillion.
  • January 23, 6:30 p.m.: Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Versions December 2024 Consumer Price Index Report.
    • The previous monthly inflation rate was 0.6%.
    • Core inflation rate on an annual basis. 3% compared to the previous 2.7%.
    • Inflation rate on a previous annual basis. 2.9%.
  • January 23, 10:00 PM: The Bank of Japan releases its data Statement on monetary policy.
    • Interest Rate Decision Foundation. 0.5% compared to the previous 0.25%.

Symbol events

• Governance votes and calls
  • Morpho dao is discussion Reduced incentives by 30% across all networks and assets.
  • DAO year is discussion Funded and approved a subsidiary DAO called Bearn to focus on building and launching products on Berachain.
  • Frax Dao is discussion $5 million investment in World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the cryptocurrency project backed by the family of US President Donald Trump.
  • January 23: Livepeer (LPT). Hosting Basic development call.
  • January 24: Arbitrum BOLD Activation vote Delivery time. BoLD allows anyone to participate in validating and defending against claims harmful to Arbitrum’s chain status.
  • January 24: Hadera (HBAR). Hosting Community call at 11am
• It opens
  • January 31: Optimism (OP) opens 2.32% of the circulating supply at $52.9 million.
  • January 31: Jupiter (JUP) opens 41.5% of circulating supply at $626 million.
• Launch tokens
  • January 23: Sky (SKY) is listed on Bitget.
  • January 23: Animecoin (ANIME) launches, with claims starting at 8am. The token will be listed on several exchanges including Binance, OKX, and KuCoin.

Conferences:

Symbolic discussion

Written by Francisco Rodriguez

• Azuki, a group of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), today offers its Animecoin (ANIME) on Ethereum and Arbitrum. It was the symbol Announce On January 13th.
• The airdrop will include Azuki NFT holders, Hyperliquid HYPE stakes, some Arbitrum ecosystem participants, and Kaito users.
• It will also include some anime communities and BNB token holders who signed up for Simple Earn using their tokens on Binance between January 17 and 20.
• The debut builds on the growing trend of NFT groups releasing their own tokens, a trend that began in 2021 when Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) launched. ApeCoin.
• Other examples include DUST for the DeGods and Pudgy Penguins PENGU codeswhich has a market capitalization of $1.6 billion.
• Other signs indicate that the NFT market is heating up, with the recent emergence of Nansen Pointing out Crypto Punk was sold for 170 ETH (about $540,000) while Azuki was sold for 165 ETH. The Azuki NFT was purchased a month ago for 105 ETH.

Determine the position of derivatives

• The cumulative volume delta indicator reveals that major cryptocurrencies, with the exception of TON, have seen net selling pressure in the perpetual futures markets over the past 24 hours.
• The block flows on Deribit and Paradigm featured short BTC long positions of $100k, $95k and $70k. An entity purchased ETH at a price of $2.9K.
• BTC and ETH front calls are now trading at par with puts.

Market movements:

• Bitcoin fell 4.1% from 4pm EST Wednesday to $102,020 (24h: -2.71%)
• ETH price fell 3.85% to $3,206.18 (24h: -2.83%)
• CoinDesk 20 fell 3.61% to 3799.21 (24h: -3.58%)
• Composite Ether Quota Rate (CESR) decreased by 15 basis points to 3.15%.
• The BTC funding rate is -0.0019% (-2.08% per year) on OKX

• The DXY was unchanged at 108.25
• Gold fell 0.35% to $2,761.10 per ounce
• Silver fell by 0.73% to $30.57 per ounce
• The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.79% to 39,958.87 points.
• The Hang Seng Index closed 0.4% lower at 19,700.56 points
• The FTSE was unchanged at 8,538.7
• The Euro Stoxx 50 was unchanged at 5203.6
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.3% to 44,156.73
• The S&P 500 index closed up 0.61% to 6,086.37 points.
• Nasdaq closed up 1.28% to 20,009.34 points
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 0.12% higher at 25,311.5
• The S&P 40 Latin America index closed up 1.21% to 2,297.32 points.
• US 10-year Treasury bonds rose 3 basis points to 4.59%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.19% to 6,109.00.
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.56% to 21,876.75.
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 44,384.00

Bitcoin statistics:

• Bitcoin Dominance: 58.59
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.031
• Hash rate (seven-day moving average): 781 EH/s
• Retail price (spot): $58.9
• Total fees: 8.5 BTC/$876,410 USD
• CME futures open interest: 188,396 BTC
• Bitcoin price in gold: 37.1 ounces
• BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 10.56%

Technical analysis

• BTC’s pullback from Monday’s high is forming a bearish double-top reversal pattern.
• A move below the horizontal line would confirm this pattern, potentially bringing more sellers led by the chart into the market.

Crypto stocks

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed Wednesday at $377.31 (-3.03%), down 1.89% at $370.19 pre-market.
• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $295.85 (+0.56%), down 2.59% at $288.18 pre-market.
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$32.81 (+4.99%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.69 (+0.66%), down 2.54% at $19.19 pre-market.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $13.14 (+3.14%), down 1.75% at $12.91 pre-market.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Close at $15.97 (+4.58%), down 1.63% at $15.71 pre-market.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Close at $11.14 (+1.64%), down 2.51% at $10.86 pre-market.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.53 (+2.24%), up 2.58% at $28.27 pre-market.
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Close at $62.11 (-4.36%), up 2% at $64.90 pre-market.
• Exit Movement (EXOD): Closed at $41.00 (+2.5%), down 2.07% at $40.15 pre-market.

ETF flows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs:

• Net daily flow: $248.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $39.23 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.161 million.

ETH ETFs

• Net daily flow: $70.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.81 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.648 million.

source: Persian investors

Night flows

Today’s chart

• The graph shows a significant increase in the number of active addresses on Solana.
• Addresses holding USDC led the growth as the TRUMP token craze took over the market over the weekend.

While you were sleeping

In the ether