Bitcoin Holdings Analysis: US vs Offshore Entities | Flash news details

According to a tweet by @ki_young_ju dated January 9, 2025, there is an ongoing analysis of Bitcoin holdings distributed between known US entities and known offshore entities. This analysis categorizes US entities to include miners, MicroStrategy (MSTR), exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchanges, and government holdings. In contrast, offshore entities include international exchanges, miners, and government properties. This distribution is crucial because it reflects not only geographic spread, but also the potential impact on market movements depending on where Bitcoin is mostly held.

The commercial implications of this distribution are significant. US entities owning a significant portion of Bitcoin indicate centralized influence, which could impact market sentiment and regulatory impacts. For example, as of the last data reading from December 2024, US exchanges alone reportedly hold more than 2 million Bitcoins, a significant portion of the total market supply. This focus suggests that any regulatory changes or institutional decisions within the United States could have immediate impacts on global Bitcoin prices. In contrast, external entities, which are more diffuse, may contribute to stability due to their decentralized nature. The data suggest that this distribution creates a balance between US regulatory environments and more flexible offshore jurisdictions.

Technically, the analysis also highlights the importance of on-chain metrics such as on-chain volume, transport volumes, and whale activity. According to data from Glassnode, as of January 2025, there has been an increase in whale transactions (those involving more than 1,000 BTC) mostly from US wallets, indicating the potential for significant market movements. Furthermore, trading volumes on major US exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken saw a 15% increase in Q4 2024. This increase in volume can be interpreted as increased trading activity, perhaps in anticipation of changes in market conditions due to these concentrated holdings. The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring both on-chain metrics and trading volumes to fully understand potential market dynamics.