We are in the Bubble Bubble Bubble territory. But this time there is a crypto salary risk – DL News

Wolfgang Munchau is a columnist for DL ​​News. He is a co-founder and director of Eurynthaligan and writes a column on European affairs for new statesmen. The opinions are his.

I was one of the few financial commentators that predicted the global financial crisis – back in February 2008. year I published a book on the subject.

That was the only way I had ever called a race accident earlier.

Now I do now – and the crypto could be part of this bubble and the likelihood of the bar about which it can be ignited.

There is no reliable way of bubble prediction, but it is usually a situation where things are collected: the occurrence of unusual financial instruments surrounded by This time-is-different-Style narratives; Macroeconomic shocks that main economists and investors tend to underestimate; And, of course, classical capital markets.

It is usually one of these characteristics of a particular balloon. But this time it could be interconnected.

Cripto as a means

CRIPTO has always been a difficult tool for categorization of traditional investors because there is no agreed way to calculate the fundamental value.

In addition to classical cryptic property, such as Bitcoin, it’s a lot of crazy things that defies, and even the most unfinished attempts to find a good reason.

People don’t even try to do Memecoins any higher purpose. COINGECKO Web site says: “One of Dogeroin’s forces is his relaxed and fun community.”

Those who used for CDs during the global financial crisis at least pretended that their fake ponsign schemes had a rational foundation.

The total value of all memes is about $ 80 billion currently. Dogeroin makes about half of that.

The Donald Trump coins is $ 3.8 billion. The problem with all of them is that they are not even imagined to earn for the investor. It is a world that dominates fraudsters and influences. If you have enough followers, people buy coins you buy – because it’s cool.

This is a deep territory of a red warning balloon for me – very similar what happened during the balloon dotcom.

The universe Memecoin is too small to reduce the global financial system, but it has just shown that he can indent.

Stock index Argentina Benchmark has fallen more than 5% after the referee is appointed to see the President The role of Javier Mile In the promotion of memecoin crashing.

Another class crypto means can have an even bigger effect.

The total market cap for Stablecoin is 225 billion dollars. Stablecoins have a rational business model behind them, but are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.

Stablecoins supported from FIAT hold reserves in short-term government bonds, such as American cash registers.

If inflation comes out, because I expect it will happen, and Fed will raise interest rates once again, short-term bonds will be reduced and it will reduce the value of reserves.

The crisis in the 1994 bond market. Year, it was launched by the unexpected growth rate of the quarter-fourth quarter reserves.

Three years later, the Asian financial crisis happened because countries were governed by foreign currency regimes very similar to stabilia. They all supported them with American box office.

It’s a thing about finance. Nothing is really new. Everything is repackaged.

Stablecoins are relatively new instruments, but the crisis of Stablecoina would be a classic case of non-compliance of property responsibility, a very common type of financial crisis from the time of imemorial.

In addition to Asia in 1997. years, it is also what happened in the UK during the then prime minister Liz Truss in 2022. year, which swollen markets with an expansive budget that led to a sudden adoption of bond yield.

This requested a crisis on a specialized end of derivative markets and almost killed the retirement industry. While in the end, it is not very serious, it was a good example of infection in other segments in the market.

Stock market

My third red flag is stock market. Chicline Custom Ratio Cyclic Custom Customs or Cap, edges are edges for all time for S & P 500 index.

The speed is now only under 40, not a pronouncement of the peak during Dot-Com. It is, historical comparison, absurdly high number. Cape was only 25 years in 1929. years and lower 1987. and 2008. years. We are close to the top of Dot-Com Mehurić-Madness Territory.

Return at the end of the 1990s, investors were rationally excited for commercial possibilities offered by the Internet, but at that moment, the main trends were not clear to see.

Microsoft and Intel ruled the sector. Apple was a sick computer manufacturer. Amazon just started. Google and Facebook weren’t on the horizon yet.

Investors were ultimately in line with their analysis that the time of Dot-Com would produce huge earnings. But they were mostly right about inventory.

One of their favorites was Altavista at the time, the first browser.

So I wonder: Is Nvidia Altavist today? AI will be huge, but do we really know who will benefit the most?

The technology behind AI is an open source. The data on which models are trained are private, but not exclusive. If my electric car collects driving data, and even yours.

As Google Memo, once sincerely admitted: “We don’t have a ditch, nor is Openai.”

The recent Deepseek shock for technical sectors should serve as a reminder that some of the optimistic projections for the industry are various.

Chinese developed Chatbot appears in a couple with a chatggpt, comes free and has been developed on a fraction of costs.

Artificial intelligence

My authority is that great winners and will be users ai, not a manufacturer. They stand to achieve great productivity gains.

I struggle to see the supplier monopolies, such as Nvidi’s domination for GPU, or ASML domination of lithographs and further in an indefinite future.

But that is what currently the market assessment is deceased. If I’m right, it would be a balloon dot-com everywhere. Silic cloak tells me that this transmission is supported by data.

Once technologically, new companies will appear from its ash, and it can form a new technical bubble.

The three bubbles I describe are separated, not apparently interconnected, but can be easily connected into a super balloon. What has been lacking the trigger so far. And this is the weakness of the crisis of the Prophet. We know that, by definition, unsustainable ends. But we don’t know when.

My verdict is that the trigger will be something given the Trump War, an excessive section of taxes or some deregulation goes wrong.

This could be from the crypto Sector itself, which will be intended for deregulation.

Hester Peirce, DC Commissioner, said that Kuid Pro Kuo is for the regulation of light that people should not be expected “Mom Government To tell them what to do or not to do, nor get them out when they do something that turns out badly. ”

One mechanism for the spread of the crisis could be an increase in inflation, the decline in the bond market, followed by Stablecoin – asian financial crisis for the crypto industry.

It could also be a good time for technological investors to panic.

Here I see more danger lies, not in any isolated crisis, but in a financial domino effect that is cracked throughout the system. As in 2008. years.